Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $112,725$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(1.47 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106,856.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 40.6)}}\) (asimptote \(106,856.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,783$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(912 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,627.0}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 40.9)}}\) (asimptote \(6,627.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,514$ on 2020-05-13

Turkey⮸

Population $84,339,067$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $143,114$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(1.87 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{140,498.5}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 29.6)}}\) (asimptote \(140,498.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,952$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(463 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,010.2}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 30.1)}}\) (asimptote \(4,010.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $37,447$ on 2020-05-13

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,548$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(2.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,332.3}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 36.9)}}\) (asimptote \(16,332.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $264$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(41.9 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{252.0}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 25.5)}}\) (asimptote \(252.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,052$ on 2020-05-13

United Arab Emirates⮸

Population $9,890,402$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $20,386$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(263 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,207.1}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 68.0)}}\) (asimptote \(24,207.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $206$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(5.27 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{321.0}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 48.6)}}\) (asimptote \(321.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $13,657$ on 2020-05-13

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $11,028$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(28 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.2\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $82$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(2.16 \times 10^{0.039t}\) (doubling rate \(7.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{267.1}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 48.6)}}\) (asimptote \(267.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,683$ on 2020-05-13

Cyprus⮸

Population $1,207,359$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $905$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(175 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{881.9}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 28.4)}}\) (asimptote \(881.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $17$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(6.21 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15.5}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 13.0)}}\) (asimptote \(15.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $439$ on 2020-05-13

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $44,830$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(740 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{65,171.9}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 56.1)}}\) (asimptote \(65,171.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $273$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(28.6 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{373.8}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(373.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $26,935$ on 2020-05-13

Maldives⮸

Population $540,544$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $955$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(2.39 \times 10^{0.040t}\) (doubling rate \(7.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,088.8}{1 + 10^{-0.082 (t - 57.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,088.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4$ on 2020-05-13

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $911$ on 2020-05-13

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 100%
Korea, South recovered 87%
Taiwan* recovered 82%
Israel recovered 59%
Turkey recovered 54%
Malaysia recovered 47%
Japan recovered 46%
Georgia recovered 28%
Kazakhstan recovered 6%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $84,024$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(4.95 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(109.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82,513.0}{1 + 10^{-0.091 (t - 15.0)}}\) (asimptote \(82,513.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,637$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(1.58 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(59.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,538.7}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 29.8)}}\) (asimptote \(4,538.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $141$ on 2020-05-13

Korea, South⮸

Population $51,269,185$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,991$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(5.15 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(62.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,446.2}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 15.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10,446.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $260$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(61 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{260.3}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 32.8)}}\) (asimptote \(260.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $969$ on 2020-05-13

Taiwan*⮸

Population $23,816,775$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $440$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(94.8 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{431.9}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 34.7)}}\) (asimptote \(431.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7$ on 2020-05-13

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $58$ on 2020-05-13

Malaysia⮸

Population $32,365,999$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,779$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(1.18 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,476.8}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 32.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,476.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $111$ on 2020-05-13

Best fit exponential: \(38 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107.1}{1 + 10^{-0.054 (t - 15.6)}}\) (asimptote \(107.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,387$ on 2020-05-13