Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $112,725$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(1.47 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{106,856.3}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 40.6)}}\) (asimptote \(106,856.3\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,783$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(912 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,627.0}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 40.9)}}\) (asimptote \(6,627.0\))
Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16,514$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $143,114$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(1.87 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{140,498.5}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 29.6)}}\) (asimptote \(140,498.5\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,952$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(463 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(16.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,010.2}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 30.1)}}\) (asimptote \(4,010.2\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $37,447$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $16,548$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(2.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{16,332.3}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 36.9)}}\) (asimptote \(16,332.3\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $264$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(41.9 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{252.0}{1 + 10^{-0.062 (t - 25.5)}}\) (asimptote \(252.0\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,052$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $20,386$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(263 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,207.1}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 68.0)}}\) (asimptote \(24,207.1\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $206$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(5.27 \times 10^{0.030t}\) (doubling rate \(10.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{321.0}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 48.6)}}\) (asimptote \(321.0\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $13,657$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $11,028$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(28 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.2\) days)
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $82$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(2.16 \times 10^{0.039t}\) (doubling rate \(7.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{267.1}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 48.6)}}\) (asimptote \(267.1\))
Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,683$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $905$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(175 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{881.9}{1 + 10^{-0.064 (t - 28.4)}}\) (asimptote \(881.9\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $17$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(6.21 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15.5}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 13.0)}}\) (asimptote \(15.5\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $439$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $44,830$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(740 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{65,171.9}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 56.1)}}\) (asimptote \(65,171.9\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $273$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(28.6 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{373.8}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 36.4)}}\) (asimptote \(373.8\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $26,935$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $955$ on 2020-05-13
Best fit exponential: \(2.39 \times 10^{0.040t}\) (doubling rate \(7.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,088.8}{1 + 10^{-0.082 (t - 57.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,088.8\))
Start date 2020-04-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4$ on 2020-05-13
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $911$ on 2020-05-13